The Six Nations is becoming increasingly competitive but Ireland are still clear favourites according to a supercomputer

The Six Nations has rarely been more competitive. Last year’s championship saw an average points difference of just 14 across the 15 games – the lowest since 2013 – according to Gracenote Sports.

Although Ireland ran out Grand Slam winners, there were just five points separating second-placed Wales and fifth-placed England come the end of the tournament.

While Italy struggled, seven of the 10 matches between the original five nations were won by 10 points or fewer, signifying how close the games between the top sides are.

And it’s not just the competition that has intensified, with the number of tries scored during last year’s competition hitting a new record of 78, beating the previous highest of 75.

The rugby predictor

Despite an apparent increase in competitiveness, the Irish are clear favourites to retain their crown, according to QBE.

The insurance company has used a mathematical formula to simulate the tournament 10,000 times and concluded that Ireland have a 42 per cent chance of winning again.

England are second favourites with a 28 per cent chance of winning, while Wales are third with 24 per cent. Scotland and France have been given little hope with a four and two per cent chance respectively, while Italy have no chance at all, the QBE predictor says.

Ireland have a 17 per cent chance of claiming a second successive Grand Slam, but the supercomputer calculates there is a 63 per cent chance that no team will win all their fixtures.

It also forecasts that England will likely win the Six Nations if they beat Ireland tomorrow, but gives the Irish a 56 per cent chance of seeing off Eddie Jones’s side, who have a reasonable 41 per cent chance of causing an upset.