A post-midterms, lame-duck Trump could be the most dangerous yet
Trump is obsessed with sealing his legacy by any means. The next two and a half years will probably be Trump’s most violent yet, writes Michael Martins
Losing the midterms won’t sedate Trump
We are living through two distinct but intertwined phases: President Trump’s post-presidency legacy construction and the build-up to the US midterms in November. Recently announcing plans to build a quasi-Arc de Triomphe, whilst settling old scores with America’s adversaries – whether that be drug lords in Mexico, presidents in Venezuela or nearly the entire Iranian regime’s leadership – it is clear that President Trump has midterms and legacy front of mind.
Start with the midterms. Historically, the incumbent party of the White House tends to lose control of one or both Houses of Congress during midterms, which many of those opposed to President Trump’s foreign policy agenda look to with an almost palpable sense of anticipation and pre-emptive relief.
I think this is a mistake. Most second-term presidents, if they lose midterms, end up sealing their legacy via foreign policy wins. For a President obsessed with legacy building by any means, whether by closing America’s borders or cutting Iranian energy shipments to China via naval blockade, this means that the next two and a half years will probably be more violent and dangerous than the past 12 months.
President Trump is unlikely to retire quietly or down tools during the lame-duck period of his presidency. I would be unsurprised if he continued to use the US military to extract concessions from allies and adversaries alike right up until the last minute of his term.
So, although the quagmire in Iran has slowed Trump down, I wouldn’t rest easy if I were the political leadership in Havana or Kyiv (or Beijing or London for that matter), because his ultimate aim now is the same as when he first became President: to “solve the problems” his predecessors couldn’t. He wants to be the President that “stopped Iran from getting nukes” and “negotiated the ceasefire in Ukraine”, not one that “delayed uranium enrichment” or “sent military equipment to the Donbas”.
He’s a showman at heart, so be prepared for another bumpy few years as he tries to sell history on his own importance.
My anti-social behaviour taskforce that doesn’t work evenings
My local council recently informed me of a five per cent tax hike tied to a new anti-social behaviour taskforce. So after nearly a decade of peaceful co-existence, I complained about a group of neighbourhood men who routinely barbecue on the neighbourhood’s live electricity network box and play loud music, drink and dance until the small hours, usually on nights before I have big meetings. After submitting five complaints with no response, I finally called the anti-social behaviour hotline, only to be told that the new taskforce doesn’t work evenings or weekends. Makes sense, please tax me higher.
A request for sports journalists
It is wild to me that with all the content on all the internet, there is not a lot of information about which players now retired referees enjoy watching the most. Imagine your workplace was watching the Brazilian national team win the World Cup – surely you would be gobsmacked by some of the technical talent on display and look forward to refereeing certain teams or players. I think this a clear gap in our collective culture and imagination that desperately needs to be filled. Over to you, sports journalists.
Give NIMBYs white noise machines
As one pub closes each day across the UK, my niche policy for next month’s local elections is for local councils to give complimentary white noise machines to residents living near to pubs. I chose my flat because I liked the neighbourhood pub, even with the odd bit of noise every now and again. Rather than try to shut the pub down and chisel away at the local community and economy, I turn on a white noise machine. Problem solved and a much cheaper giveaway compared to all the others.
Rachel Harris is the accountant doing God’s work on Instagram
My favourite Instagram account of the month is Accountant_She, run by an accountant called Rachel Harris. Aside from normal bookkeeping and tax efficiency tips, Rachel also specialises in parsing through some of HMRC’s Friday afternoon policy document releases and translating what their fine print means for business owners.
Her series of “HMRC won’t tell you this” and “today’s episode in the British Government does X to small business” usually make strong policy points about some of the anti-business policies quietly being pushed through. Because many of these policies are published on Friday afternoons, they often fly under the radar and don’t attract much public sympathy or media outrage, even though they have a material effect on investment and employment. I would strongly recommend giving her a follow if you run a business.
Michael Martins is founder of Overton Advisory and a former US Embassy London political and economic specialist