Canada’s national multifamily vacancy rate jumped to 4.75% in August 2026, up from roughly 2% in 2022, according to a CoStar Group forecast released on 31 August 2026.
Overall vacancy surge
The Business Wire release distributed via the Financial Post states that the national multifamily vacancy rate has risen from “barely 2% in 2022 to 4.75% today” (August 2026). The increase represents a rise of 2.75 percentage points over a four‑year span, or a 137.5% jump relative to the 2022 baseline.
CoStar Group attributes the higher vacancy level to a sustained pace of net deliveries that have averaged about 8,000 units per quarter since 2023 – roughly double the delivery rate of the five years preceding the pandemic. The same release notes that these deliveries have outpaced absorption, pushing the vacancy rate higher.
Segment split – affordable versus luxury
While the headline figure captures the market as a whole, the forecast breaks the vacancy picture into two distinct segments.
- Affordable (low‑end) units: Vacancy sits at 3% in August 2026. The release does not provide a 2022 baseline for this segment, but the figure is described as “steady” compared with earlier periods.
- Luxury (high‑end) units: Vacancy climbed from roughly 7% in 2022 to about 15% in August 2026. That is an increase of roughly 8 percentage points, more than doubling the 2022 level.
The divergent trends mean that the overall vacancy rate is being pulled upward primarily by the luxury segment, while affordable units remain tightly supplied.
CoStar Group’s forecast and corporate background
CoStar Group, the provider of online real‑estate marketplaces and analytics, issued the forecast on 31 August 2026. The company is headquartered in Washington, D.C., trades on the Nasdaq under ticker CSGP, and is classified under SIC “Services‑Business Services, NEC”. Its chief executive is Andy Florance, as confirmed in the most recent SEC filings (Form 8‑K filed 21 August 2026).
Although the forecast focuses on Canadian multifamily markets, CoStar’s broader financial position provides context. In its most recent Form 10‑Q (filed 29 July 2026), CoStar reported net income of US$58 million for the six‑month period ended 30 June 2026 and total assets of US$10.139 billion. Shareholders’ equity stood at US$7.932 billion, and the company had 417.9 million shares outstanding as of 31 December 2025.
These figures illustrate that CoStar operates with a sizable balance sheet, enabling it to produce detailed market forecasts such as the one for Canada’s multifamily sector.
The split in vacancy rates carries concrete implications for different market participants.
- Developers of luxury projects face a growing pool of empty units. With vacancy at about 15%, rent growth may be constrained, prompting developers to reconsider pricing, amenity packages, or to shift focus toward more affordable tiers.
- Affordable‑housing developers operate in a tighter market. A 3% vacancy suggests strong demand and limited supply, potentially supporting higher rents and encouraging new construction or conversion of existing stock to meet the gap.
- Investors can use the segment data to calibrate risk. Luxury assets may carry higher vacancy risk, while affordable assets appear more resilient, influencing portfolio allocation and financing terms.
- Policymakers looking to address housing affordability may see the data as evidence that targeted incentives for low‑end construction could be more effective than broad‑brush supply measures.
All parties should note that CoStar expects the overall vacancy rate to begin trending down in the second half of 2027 as absorption catches up with deliveries. The forecast does not quantify the timing of that reversal, leaving room for market participants to monitor quarterly delivery and absorption data.
What remains unknown
The release does not disclose the absolute number of units represented by the vacancy percentages, nor does it break out regional variations across Canada’s provinces. It also does not provide a 2022 baseline for the affordable‑unit segment, limiting direct year‑on‑year comparison for that slice of the market. Finally, while CoStar cites a consistent delivery rate of 8,000 units per quarter since 2023, the source does not detail the composition of those deliveries (e.g., luxury versus affordable), which would help explain the divergent vacancy trends.
Vacancy rates – 2022 vs. August 2026
| Segment | 2022 Vacancy % | August 2026 Vacancy % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ≈2 | 4.75 |
| Affordable (low‑end) | N/A | 3 |
| Luxury (high‑end) | ≈7 | ≈15 |
Source: Financial Post – Canada’s Multifamily Market Masks Two Distinct Realities (Business Wire press release)
Timeline of key data points
- 2022 – National multifamily vacancy rate around 2%; luxury‑unit vacancy around 7%.
- 2023 onward – Net deliveries average 8,000 units per quarter, double the pre‑pandemic pace.
- 31 August 2026 – CoStar releases forecast showing overall vacancy at 4.75%, affordable vacancy at 3%, luxury vacancy at about 15%.
- Second half of 2027 (forecast) – Vacancy rate expected to begin trending down as absorption exceeds deliveries.
Stakeholders should watch the quarterly delivery and absorption reports that CoStar updates throughout 2027 to gauge whether the projected decline materialises.
In sum, the CoStar forecast paints a picture of a bifurcated Canadian multifamily market: luxury supply outstripping demand, while affordable supply remains scarce. The data give developers, investors and policymakers a concrete basis for adjusting strategies ahead of the anticipated market correction in late 2027.