Could Kemi Badenoch be our next Prime Minister?
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has several critical personal talents that are not easily replicated, and the polls are starting to move in her favour, says George Trefgarne
Something astonishing is happening in British politics. Bedevilled by an entire generation of dud politicians, including now Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, we suddenly find that a 5ft 4” lady brought up in Nigeria, who went to nine schools before she was 16 because her country was falling apart, is steadily ascending in the polls.
I am going to stick my neck out: Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative Party and of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition (a distinctly British constitutional role), might be Prime Minister, as soon as 2028. That is despite the fact that our central forecast is still that the next government will be some sort of Tory Reform combination or a pro-EU one led by Wes Streeting. If she is leader of the biggest party, the King will call her, not Nigel Farage. For the first time, it is not impossible to imagine such an eventuality.
In evidence, I offer first a poll from More In Common, which shows that the total of those who say they will vote Conservative combined with those who will consider doing so has overtaken all other parties including Reform.
Second, a poll from YouGov. Starting from a low base, Kemi is herself gently recovering in the polls and is now preferred as Prime Minister against all comers except Sir Keir Starmer, whose own rating is about to pass her on the way down.
If this does happen, it would be unprecedented, not just in Britain but in the entire Western democracy. Barack Obama was of mixed race but was brought up by the ocean in Honolulu. Kemi was, relatively speaking, born with ‘a silver spoon in her mouth’ in Lagos in 1980, but it got ripped out as Nigeria fell into economic chaos. Arriving in Britain aged 16 due to the state of Nigeria, she has had to drag herself up by her own bootstraps. There is a self-improving hint of Thatcher to her.
I have long leant in her direction. Hesitantly at first, but now with rising enthusiasm. In fact, I feel so positively towards her, you may wish to add a large pinch of salt. But bear with me.
She is honest
Having got to know her a bit in the last few years, I can tell you she has several critical personal talents which are not easily replicated. I put these under the heading: character. She is honest. Indeed, she might be the most honest politician for decades. She has stamina and is tough. She is intelligent. Arriving in Britain aged 16, she earned a master’s in systems engineering from the University of Sussex, an NVQ in computer science, and an LLB in Law from Birkbeck College, where she studied part-time while working. She also has the right instincts about institutions, markets, economics and culture. She is not a “clever idiot” from the Westminster Special Adviser factory and is evidently learning the art of reasonable decision-making.
She is a family person. This helps. She has a uniquely demanding role. Kemi and Hamish Badenoch (an MD at Deutsche Bank) share three children, but also a benign British patriotism, which is a relief from all the “broken Britain” sloganeering of others. Being a mother while also doing her job must be doubly demanding, but it also keeps her grounded in real, quotidian life.
She is developing on the job. The ability to progress and learn from mistakes is vital for any successful leader. This is in contrast to all those recent Prime Ministers who got worse in office. A graphic example of this is Prime Minister’s Questions. Helped by some coaching from David Cameron, she has steadily gained ascendancy over the Commons. Not just by opposing the government, but through some emerging wit, cunning, charm and rhetoric. Another example is her party conference speech, which promised to exit the Net Zero energy policy, welfare savings and an abolition of both stamp duty and business rates for small businesses.
She is slowly, bit by bit, gaining traction with the public, as her announcement this week that she would introduce age restrictions on social media for under-16s demonstrates. Sophie Ridge of Sky News asked her breakfast viewers to send in their opinions, as she does about stories most mornings. She was astonished that for the first time ever not a single one of the hundreds of responses were against the idea, which, as Kemi put it, is common sense.
It is plain that Labour came to power on several lies: not to raise taxes on working people, to focus on growth and an end to chaos
She has also had some luck. Almost nobody could have guessed that the Labour government would prove to be so bad so quickly. It is plain that they came to power on several lies: not to raise taxes on working people, to focus on growth and an end to chaos. They have broken every one of those pledges. Furthermore, they are divided, incompetent, and their conflicting instincts and backgrounds seem to be of no use in guiding themselves out of their mistakes.
Other odd bits of luck have emerged. It is a paradox that with every defection from the Conservatives to Reform, Kemi’s popularity improves. Nadhim Zahawi’s departure this week is a reminder that Reform is turning into the exact thing it should not be: an asylum for all the people – the supporters of Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss – who got us into this mess in the first place. In that sense it is Kemi, not the charismatic disruptor Nigel Farage, who offers a break with the recent past.
She is not, of course, perfect. Her own record as Business Secretary was unimpressive. She doesn’t always listen and can be abrasive. Judging by the shadow cabinet, she has more to learn about choosing, creating and mentoring a team.
Perhaps her biggest weakness is that she is leader of the Conservative Party, an organisation which spent the last decade attempting to prove JS Mill right that, by the law of their constitution, they are the stupid party. That law, of course, not being that they are conservative (a sensible philosophy based on looking after what is good, fixing what is broken) but tending to cynicism, factionalism and incompetence. Shaking off that legacy will take time. The local elections in May are still Reform’s to win.
Thirty years ago, , wrote a book entitled On Bullshit. In this, he explained the difference between a liar, who knows the value of truth yet decides deliberately not to say it, with a bullshitter, who has no concept of the truth in the first place. Of the two, a bullshitter is more dangerous. Well, we in Britain have seemingly lived in an Age of Bullshit since the Iraq War, when Tony Blair got us involved on a false premise and then, worse, proceeded to conduct it incompetently. The exemplar of this age was Boris Johnson and his Brexit settlement, which somehow produced out-of-control immigration, public spending and tax. Rachel Reeves is very much in that tradition.
Finally, it seems we have found an antidote to this disastrous Ungeist in Kemi Badenoch. A bandwagon is beginning to roll. It will be a bumpy ride. But if she survives the May elections, Kemi’s direction of travel is more hopeful than anything else on offer in Britain, or elsewhere for that matter.
George Trefgarne is CEO and founder of Boscobel & Partners