DEBATE: Given the lack of progress during the Covid-19 crisis, should the transition period be extended?

Given the lack of progress during the Covid-19 crisis, should the Brexit transition period be extended?

Sir Vince Cable, former leader of the Liberal Democrats and former secretary of state for business, innovation and skills, says YES.

Extending the transition period will become critical as this government limps towards the end of June with no progress at all made in the negotiations. 

It is important for people in the UK to understand that the EU is not being bloody-minded: EU leaders are focusing on the Covid emergency, and so should we.  

Meanwhile, the country cannot afford to “crash out” of the transition period at the end of year with no new arrangement in place — it would be a huge double blow to the economy, after an already massive battering from coronavirus and the lockdown. 

An extension also opens up the prospect of a total reset in the way both sides approach the talks, since it is now clear that the EU needs to adapt to provide an “outer ring” for the non-euro countries and a stronger, more integrated core for those operating the single currency. That outer ring is something the UK should seek to shape, since we could credibly be a part of it in future.

David Collins, professor of international economic law at City University, says NO.

Attempts to use the Covid-19 crisis as a pretext for prolonging the transition period are untenable for several reasons — not least of which is that there is no reason that the negotiations cannot continue online. Nor is there any reason to believe that more time would achieve anything in the way of a breakthrough. 

Moreover, far from adding to the economic damage caused by the virus, the coming recession could actually mitigate some of the negative repercussions of a no-deal. Brexit in January. Long queues at Dover are even less likely, since trade has already plummeted to lows not seen in decades.

Continued payments to the EU budget would also be fiscally disastrous for the UK as we seek to recover from the pandemic. 

Finally, note that the transition period has been significantly more favourable for the EU than for UK (ongoing budget payments with no role in the creation of laws and no judge on the ECJ). This must not go on.

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