Editor’s Notes: Nobody has a clue what’s going to happen
Westminster has entered a period of chaos, marked by the usual signs of political turmoil: marquees outside parliament for camera crews, protesters desperately trying to get in shot and MPs from all sides of the debate milling around trying to get on the air.
In the City, frantic movements in sterling and a sizeable hit to UK equities suggests it’s no saner in the Square Mile. The pound, already low, fell further on the news that the PM was holding a press conference – the expectation being that she might resign. Last week, sterling spiked seconds after the Brexit secretary gave a thumbs up to the waiting cameras outside Number Ten.
It’s lucky they weren’t broadcasting when he left, looking glum. Markets are no better at reacting to (or predicting) politics than the professional pundits. Last night, the City was scrambling to get its head around the internal workings of the Tory party, with one investment bank sending out a research note that was drawn very heavily from the Conservative Home website beloved by party activists.
Markets might be buffeted by political events that they didn’t see coming, but market participants can at least look forward and attempt to plot a reasonable course. Amid all the Brexit drama, most institutions continue to believe that some kind of deal is the most likely outcome, even if they can’t be sure of when it will emerge.
The real threat on the horizon is a government led by Jeremy Corbyn. I hear time and again from City figures that while they think they’ve figured out ways to survive Brexit, they don’t see a way of surviving Brexit plus Corbyn. Just this week a survey showed two thirds of partners at City law firms cite Corbyn as their biggest worry.
Tory MPs also fear the same spectre, and the PM will rely on the horrifying prospect of another election to whip a few of them into backing her deal. Meanwhile, and in the brave words of BBC political correspondent Chris Mason, none of us have a clue what’s going to happen. Like Theresa May, we’re at the mercy of events.
To find UK innovation, look East
On Tuesday, I toured the vast innovation, research and co-working space known as Here East, which occupies the former media centre and surrounding buildings from the 2012 Olympic Games. Over the past few years the team behind this legacy project have quietly built up a hugely impressive and thriving community of over 3,000 people working in areas from design and property to robotics, drones and artificial intelligence. Some of the most advanced engineering in the country is happening there, just 15 minutes from the City.
It reminded me of the National Graphene Institute in Manchester. Alongside the cutting-edge technology, clusters of creative enterprises from fashion to dance have taken up residence, and the overwhelmingly international workforce zip around the park on electric scooters. Here East’s boss, Gavin Poole, is an evangelist for what’s emerged on this site – and as its architect he deserves immense credit. The future’s East.
Close to home
On Sunday night, I was on Sky News, looking at the incoming front pages of Monday’s newspapers. They were dominated by coverage of the Armistice centenary commemorations and we discussed how tangible (or otherwise) our connection with the First World War is these days. I’ve since found a quite remarkable website called astreetnearyou.org. After entering your postcode, a map reveals all the WW1 deaths on your street. There were nine on my south London road. Their names and stories are all revealed. It’s a deeply moving resource.
Tweaking our awards to perfection
This time last week the City was nursing a hangover, following the CityAM Awards. It was our biggest Awards yet, with nearly 500 people joining us to celebrate. Rather than invite a politician to talk, I interviewed Martin Gilbert, the City’s longest serving chief exec, on stage. Martin was open, honest and illuminating and I think we’ve found a winning format for the future. Head to cityam.ca for video highlights. We’re already thinking about next year – our 10th Awards night.