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Thursday 12 December 2019 11:52 am

What time will the UK election exit poll come out?

By: Ian Johnston

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What time will the UK election exit poll come out?
Nuns leave after voting at St John's parish hall polling station in London

Voters across the country are heading to polling stations today before tonight’s exit poll is expected to show which way the General Election will go.

The Conservatives remain ahead in opinion polls but their lead has narrowed recently, with predictions ranging from a hung parliament to a convincing Tory majority.

Read more: In pictures: Dogs at polling stations on election day

Read more: General election 2019 live: Party leaders cast their votes

CityAM runs through the important milestones on election night to help you keep your finger on the pulse as the result of what has been described the most important election in a generation unfolds.

So put the kettle on, sit back, and at least try to relax as you check out our hour-by-hour run down of events.

10pm: Exit poll arrives

BBC, ITV and Sky News publish their exit polls at 10pm. The exit poll is a survey of voters who have cast their ballots in 144 constituencies across England, Scotland and Wales. 

Exit polls have only failed to predict the final results in 1992 and 2015, when they predicted hung parliaments, rather than Conservative majorities for Margaret Thatcher and David Cameron respectively. 

The exit poll accurately predicted that Theresa May would lose her majority in 2017, contradicting earlier polling. 

11pm: Vote counts begin to trickle in

The race to count votes begins. Houghton and Sunderland South and Newcastle Central will compete to count their votes quickest, with results expected by 11pm.

1am-2am: North of England results

Results are expected to emerge for Conservative target seats in the North of England in the early hours of the morning.

Johnson is targeting places seats including Darlington, Workington and Wigan. They are firmly within the ‘Labour heartlands’, seats that the Conservatives would never have won in the past.

Read more: Election 2019: Tory lead over Labour shrinks in latest poll

However, voters in these seats opted to leave the European Union in 2016 and polls show they could go either Labour or Conservative.

These key swing seats will give an early indication of the accuracy of the exit poll.

Read more

Electoral reform could destroy the Labour party

Polling station exterior with voters lining up for local election in a community setting with clear signage and ballot box...

3am: Will Labour steal Brexit party seat?

Hartlepool, the main target seat for the Brexit Party, will declare around 3am. Polls are predicting a Labour win. 

Results of pivotal swing seats will come in, with the Tories targeting Labour seats such as Don Valley, Bishop Auckland, and Great Grimsby.

The Kensington result will be announced, where former Tory minister Sam Gyimah is running for the Liberal Democrats to win the Conservative seat.

4am: Will Raab and IDS keep seats?

Big names in tight seats will discover their fates at 4am onwards.

Tory grandees Dominic Raab and Iain Duncan Smith have faced strong challenges from Liberal Democrat and Labour candidates, respectively.

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson is fighting to hold East Dunbartonshire from the Scottish National Party, while DUP deputy Nigel Dodds is facing a fight from Sinn Fein in North Belfast.

4:30am: Boris Johnson to discover result

Boris Johnson will discover if he has held on to his seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in the early hours.

Johnson has a remarkably slim majority for a sitting Prime Minister and Labour have mobilised behind local campaigner Ali Milani.

The PM is expected to win but it will be close.

5am-7am: Full results come out – will they confirm exit poll?

Final results will come in from 5am and the picture of the UK’s new parliament will become clear, whatever the exit poll had said earlier.

Read more: Your guide to the General Election: Everything you need to know

By 7, we will know if Johnson has secured a majority, if there will be a hung parliament, or, in the unlikeliest of scenarios, if Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour has won a majority. 

Stay up to date with the all of the twists and turns today with our live blog.

Read more

What should we make of Makerfield?

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