Election 2024: Could the Blue Wall be about to crumble in Sevenoaks?
Throughout the general election campaign, political reporter Jessica Frank-Keyes is visiting the City’s commuter hotspots. First up, it’s Sevenoaks…
Just a 24 minute train journey from London Bridge, leafy Sevenoaks is a wealthy Kent commuter town.
A Gail’s Bakery aside, the quiet suburban streets couldn’t feel further from the noise of the capital, or the skyscrapers of the Square Mile.
Yet it’s home to the second highest number of City workers in the country, and has been true blue Tory – one Liberal year aside – since the constituency’s 1885 creation.
But following years of political chaos and global shocks – with the general election now just over three weeks away – are even seats like Sevenoaks potentially at risk for the Conservatives?
‘Never, ever treated as a safe seat’: the Tory candidate
Conservative candidate – and chief secretary to the Treasury – Laura Trott was first elected to represent Sevenoaks in 2019, where she says she’s worked to improve schools, local services and deliver a faster train service into town – ‘the LT Express’, her adviser jokes.
We meet just days after Tory grandee Michael Gove has advised party activists to “inhale the optimism gas”, and Trott has clearly taken heed.
“I have never, ever treated this seat like a safe seat,” she insists.
“Every single election I’ve been involved in, the polls haven’t been quite right. There are so many variables… we need to be fighting for every vote right up to the last minute.”
In her role as a City(ish) MP, she adds: “The City is incredibly important, we really value what the City brings to this country, its contribution to economic growth, to the country’s finances.”
I joined Trott and a group of activists door knocking in Swanley, a less affluent, Brexit-leaning part of the constituency, where immigration quickly emerges as the focus of voters’ concern.
Nigel Haynes, 61, tells me the situation in nearby Ashford, where the government has put up asylum seekers in hotels, is “lawless” and leaves him worried for his children’s futures.
As for the politicians charged with fixing the crisis? “They’re all rubbish. They’ve given up.”
Despite the occasional angst, there’s clearly a strong support base for Trott, who has marshalled around a dozen campaigners – from local councillors to a teenager on work experience – to canvass.
One former Labour voter, impressed by her local record, stops the former MP to say she’ll voting for her; while another resident insists he won’t be “voting for all those other w***ers”.
But the message that the Tories are losing ground to Reform UK feels inescapable.
“It’s a shame they haven’t got hold of a few more issues that people are concerned about,” one lifelong Conservative voter mutters.
“You look at the polls, you look at Nigel Farage and what he’s doing and you worry… There are going to be casualties and you have to hope Laura isn’t going to be one of them.”
As we chat on the train to London – sadly not on one of the new high-speed services she says “brings me immense joy” – she’s adamant she won’t discuss the future of her party, though Westminster’s commentariat has long tagged Trott as a one-day leader.
“I’m fighting very hard to be re-elected in my local area. The only thing I would say is that Conservatives win elections from the centre ground… and that is what we need to be doing and that’s what we are doing, and that’s why this election is so important.”
‘My friends – and I – come from here’: the Lib Dem pick
It’s a different story in Sevenoaks town itself, however, where Liberal Democrat activists are pounding the pavements.
County councillor and now parliamentary candidate Richard Streatfeild, an army veteran and local events business owner, zips around on an e-bike emblazoned with the party logo.
The yellow wave, he tells me, has been building in Sevenoaks for some time. Historically, the party has struggled to have its voice heard locally, but now has full control of the town council and growing ranks at district level.
“The Tory vote is very soft – people are still making their minds up,” he tells me. “Because they’ve either been appalled about the parties in Downing Street or especially for City workers, they’re appalled at the economic mismanagement.
“They want stability and that means there’s strong consideration of the LIberal Democrats as an alternative.”
One former Tory voter in his mid-forties, who answers the door mid-working from home, like many here, is a useful illustration of the type of person the party hopes to win over.
“I don’t think it’s going well for the Conservatives,” he confesses. “The last few years have been a bit of a catastrophe – they can’t even work out who should be leading them.”
Labour, he reckons, are “more… towards the middle of the road” under Starmer, “but with voting tactically, the Tories won’t remain in power – I’m not even sure I’d want them to”.
Over coffee in one of Sevenoaks’ many cafes, Streatfeild tells me what got him into politics, which includes his own family’s experience with special educational needs provision.
“I come from here, my friends are here, my family are here on war memorials and in the community,” he says. “I think that’s something that has disappeared from politics.”
There’s little local policy deviation – Trott, Streatfeild and Labour’s candidate all want better transport links – but as ever, it’s national issues local MPs are also campaigning on.
‘Good relationship’ with the mayor: Labour’s challenger
Labour candidate and Greenwich councillor Denise Scott-McDonald, admits convincing Sevenoaks to turn red will be a challenge.
But the former New York City news reporter is determined to offer the area an alternative.
She highlights issues including the cost of living and need for economic growth, childcare, foodbanks, and Labour’s plans to create a national wealth fund, as well as local transport and health provision.
Kent County Council (KCC) is also warning of difficult times ahead and “extremely tough savings decisions” after the local authority was told it must save a hefty £86m over the next year.
Some polls, she says, do have Labour ahead in the seat, and she stresses: “It’s also about, if there is a Labour government, don’t you want your MP to have that strong connection with a Labour government, and so by voting for Labour that’s your opportunity?
“You do have to have a good relationship with the mayor of London and TfL.”
The area may be affluent, but national issues are affecting residents here nonetheless – and in some cases, inspiring political transformation.
One man answers his door and tells us that while he didn’t vote in 2017 or 2019: “I will be voting Labour for the first time. The government has had all the opportunities in the world.”