Expect Rum to pack a punch before King is crowned
SATURDAY features the first British Classic of the season, Newmarket’s 2000 Guineas (3.35pm), which also marks the first World Pool fixture of the year in the UK and Ireland.
Much of the build-up has centred around Aidan O’Brien’s string of potential contenders, but his grip on the race has slipped since he last won it back in 2019, and there are question marks over how hard he now targets it with a long season ahead.
Gstaad is possibly the one to give Ballydoyle a change of fortunes.
He was never seen out of the first two in four Group One starts as a two-year-old, some of the strongest form on offer here, and will be bang there if fit and ready to go on his seasonal reappearance.
Fitness would be the concern, though, as several of O’Brien’s have looked like they’ll come on for the run and I’m not willing to take a chance at around the 6/1 mark.
With that in mind, KING’S TRAIL looks an intriguing prospect for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby, the combination responsible for three of the last four winners of the race.
They won it with a 16/1 outsider in Notable Speech two years ago, and I get similar vibes about this horse, who is likely to be the second string behind stablemate Distant Storm, the current 5/1 second favourite.
King’s Trail comes here in a similar vein of form to the 2024 winner, with a couple of all-weather victories under his belt including an impressive win at Kempton last month where he beat Conclave, a horse Andrew Balding holds in high regard.
This looks a more open edition of the 2000 Guineas than we’re used to, with the warm favourite Bow Echo heading straight here without a prep run and many of the early Ballydoyle fancies having their respective bubbles burst.
At 10/1 with Star Sports, King’s Trail is a fair each-way price, while the 20/1 about him for the Derby is definitely worth a second look, as this Sea The Stars colt is bred to stay further.
Before the main event we have the Group Three HKJC World Pool Palace House Stakes (2.55pm), where I’m keen on last year’s winner.
Asfoora is well worth her place at the top of the market, but there are enough reasons to take on the favourite who is now seven years old and must shoulder a seven-pound penalty.
Jonathan Portman was successful in this race 12 months ago with RUMSTAR, and with the yard in red-hot form, lightning could easily strike twice.
He gained his victory here last year in fine style on quick ground, with another consistent high-level sprinter in She’s Quality behind him that day.
With conditions in his favour again, and the sprint division being a hard one to nail down, the 8/1 is worth taking.
On what looks a tricky day at Newmarket, another to consider adding to your list is MISTER WINSTON in the Suffolk Stakes (2.20pm).
The drying ground may rule out a few of these and this looks a good opportunity to get on one who is likely to shorten up before Saturday.
Plenty of his opponents have question marks over both ground and race fitness, whereas Andrew Balding’s charge won nicely at the track just over two weeks ago and will be spot on to go well again.
He is the favourite but 5/1 for the market leader still looks a decent price and I can see Oisin Murphy controlling things from the front.
POINTERS SATURDAY
MISTER WINSTON 2.20pm Newmarket
RUMSTAR e/w 2.55pm Newmarket
KING’S TRAIL e/w 3.35pm Newmarket