It’s D-Day for Champions League’s new format. So has it worked?
When Uefa revealed its new format for the Champions League, it was with injecting more excitement and unpredictability in mind.
Specifically, a stale group phase would be replaced with a ‘Swiss model’ league phase that promised more games between top teams and – crucially – a more competitive product.
Notwithstanding the fact that Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain have served up extra drama by flirting with elimination, the new league phase is set for an acid test on Wednesday night.
All 36 teams will play simultaneously to determine which eight advance straight to the last 16, who faces another play-off round, and who is simply going home.
At first glance there appears to be little improvement in the excitement on offer on the final Champions League matchday.
While there is something to play for in 16 of the 18 fixtures, compared with 11 out of 16 last year, this time nine of the 36 teams are already doomed to elimination. Last season under the old format it was five of 32.
But perhaps the most intriguing element is the introduction of the play-off round and the scrapping of the Europa League safety net, whereby teams finishing third in their group would previously drop into the second-tier Uefa competition.
Now only the eight best teams are safe – and avoid the peril and strain of a two-legged play-off.
There is far more to gain from finishing in the top eight of the league phase than there was in topping a group.
And the good news is that the race for the top eight remains wide open, with 12 of Wednesday’s games having a bearing on it. Compare with last year, when just three of 16 Champions League matchday six matches could affect who won each group.
Champions League MD8 permutations
With only flawless Liverpool and free-scoring Barcelona guaranteed a top-eight finish, there are 11 teams scrapping over the next six places. Last season, five of the group winners were already known before the last round.
And while we know 18 of the 24 who won’t be eliminated – and the names are little surprise – the nine chasing the last six spots include City and PSG.
Does this mean that the league phase has been an improvement on the old group phase, purely in excitement terms? That probably depends on your view of the earlier matchdays of the new format, which felt like they lacked jeopardy.
In this revamp the drama is firmly backloaded, all the more so since all 18 matches will be being played concurrently.
Which begs another question: just how much viewing excitement can one football fan handle?
While staging the entirety of the final matchday of the first Champions League round at once sounds good in principle – and is obviously better for integrity reasons – it remains to be seen how the evening will play out as a spectacle.
If goals fly in within seconds in Manchester, Stuttgart, Turin and Dortmund, will we be able to digest the first action before it has already been rendered irrelevant? The human brain only has so much bandwidth.
Say a prayer, then, for Ally McCoist, whom broadcaster TNT Sports is tasking with explaining all the permutations in real time on live TV.