It’s not just parliament facing a Brexit showdown: Brussels also has a big dilemma on its hands
Two months is an exceedingly long time when it comes to Brexit.
But try, if you will, to cast your minds back to September and the run up to the Conservative party conference. On more than one occasion EU leaders suddenly and unexpectedly changed tone and delivered Prime Minister Theresa May a vote of confidence.
“In the [Chequers] white paper there are lots of positive things, lots of useful things, just to make that absolutely clear,” chief negotiator Michel Barnier said, at one point.
At another, European Council president Donald Tusk praised a “positive evolution in the UK’s approach”.
One explanation at the time, emanating from the gossipy bars of Brussels, went like this – while the EU was happy to play hardball with May, it was wary of going too far and thus leaving her vulnerable to a serious leadership threat.
Noise of a challenge at conference had spooked Barnier and Tusk and prompted them to come to the PM’s defence with some positive soundbites. Better the devil they knew.
If such concerns really are prominent in the leading minds of the Commission and Council, yesterday’s events must have made for uncomfortable viewing. The Prime Minister is still (just about) standing, preventing the rise of a hard-Brexit
advocate from the Tory benches or the even more chaotic possibility of a fresh General Election and potentially a new government. However, her survival is extraordinary by historical standards; any previous Prime Minister would surely not have survived the number of resignations to have rocked May’s government since the summer.
As the thread by which May hangs gets thinner and thinner, the EU must reflect on the wisdom of its tactics. The Leave vote itself can be traced back to the decision to send David Cameron packing with so little to show for his renegotiation. Over three-and-a-half years later, sending May back home with this withdrawal agreement has inflamed Brexiter opposition to the deal and further isolated the Tory leader.
The result is yesterday’s chaos and the sudden prospect of outcomes that were, until recently, considered far-fetched – a Conservative leadership contest, a second referendum, a General Election, a no deal scenario. While one of those four possibilities may be welcome in Brussels, it is a remarkably dangerous game to play.
If parliament rejects this deal, as expected, all eyes will be on May. However, it will also leave Barnier and his negotiators with a huge decision to make – go for broke, or give some ground. When pondering this part-existential, part-tactical dilemma, the EU’s leading lights must give serious thought to whether their approach has worked to date.