James Reed: UK jobs market is among worst I’ve ever seen
After 35 consecutive months of decline, the UK jobs market is unlike anything in the past few decades, writes James Reed, chairman and CEO of Reed
White collar workers should worry for the future of the UK jobs market
The problem for our economy of disappearing job vacancies is not going away.
Official statistics show 35 consecutive periods of decline. Next month, it will be three years, with vacancies falling from a peak of around 1.3m then to 761,000 now. Our figures at Reed confirm the story, showing a 25 per cent fall in advertised vacancies year on year.
In my decades of working in recruitment, I have never seen anything like this. After the financial crisis of 2008, we had 16 months of declining vacancies, which was bad enough, but then they started to come back.
What we are seeing now is of a different order. While GDP figures for April were disappointing, this is against a backdrop of 0.7 per cent growth in the first quarter. I have never seen a period of economic growth combined with falling job vacancies. In the past, growth meant more jobs and recession fewer.
The US is seeing something similar. Donald Trump has expressed disappointment with the latest jobs data and is urging the Fed to cut interest rates.
My suspicion is that what we’re seeing isn’t cyclical, but something that is more structural, as indicated by its persistent nature.
I am concerned that it is a portent of what’s to come with automation and AI. We may be going into a period of very substantial disruption in the UK jobs market over the next five years, not dissimilar to what occurred in the 1980s for a lot of blue collar workers, except this time it’s white collar jobs that are being affected.
I saw one forecast that 15m white collar jobs might disappear in the US in the next 12 to 18 months. This should be the biggest news story of the moment, as it indicates a hollowing out of our labour market rather like the hollowing out of our town centres.
The social disruption that could result is very significant. It’s going to make it very difficult for a lot of people to make a living. In this environment I suggest jobseekers adopt an approach I liken to playing a game of Pooh sticks. You need to identify the fast-flowing water. Which parts of the economy are moving in the most exciting and dynamic ways and offer you the best chance to succeed? Which services are people always going to need, and won’t be replaced by AI? Those who work this out are the ones that will prosper in this period of fundamental change to the UK jobs market.
The charity crisis
Small charities across the UK are being pushed to the brink by a triple whammy of rising costs, increased demand and shrinking income from public donations and grants. New research from my charity Big Give, Global’s Make Some Noise and NCVO reveals the alarming reality facing these organisations – often unseen but indispensable lifelines in their communities.
A survey of over 700 small charities (with incomes under £1m) found that nearly half say their financial situation is so grave that they’re at risk of closure within a year. Please consider giving to one of the many small charities taking part in our first Small Charity Week, which runs until next Monday, and have any money you can give doubled by Big Give at www.biggive.org
Sound of the Underground
The Reed Group is delighted to be supporting a programme celebrating 25 years of Transport for London’s (TfL) Art on the Underground programme, which will see a new sound artwork by 2023 Turner prize nominated artist Rory Pilgrim presented at Waterloo Underground station between 14 and 25 July. “Go Find Miracles” has emerged from Pilgrim’s long-term work with those affected by the criminal justice system. The work will be heard at Waterloo along the travelator connecting the Northern and Jubilee lines. I hope it will bring an inspiring message of hope and positivity, encouraging us to seek connection and find miraculous moments in our everyday lives.
Everyday Surrealism at the RA
The Royal Academy’s summer exhibition is on until August 17 and has been very well received. My wife Nicola and I enjoyed seeing works by Tracy Emin, Grayson Perry, Quentin Blake, William Kentridge, Norman Ackroyd and Sean Scully. But I must admit our highlight was a piece of what he calls ‘everyday Surrealism’ called ‘I’ll Never Let You Go’, by our son Harry Reed. A proud moment.
What I’ve been reading
I have just finished The Salt Path by Raynor Winn, a book I wanted to read before seeing the critically acclaimed film starring Gillian Anderson. Its message of hope and resilience is a really powerful one. The circumstances Raynor and her husband find themselves in – homeless, penniless and unwell – are some of the most challenging imaginable, and their decision to walk through it (quite literally) is inspiring.
The book is already a bestseller that has transformed the Winns’ lives, but if you haven’t read it, do pick it up, especially if you’re heading for the South West this summer.