The latest survey from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development shows private‑sector hiring intentions in the United Kingdom have stalled at the lowest level seen outside the pandemic, signalling a "low hire, low fire" environment that may foreshadow similar pressures for Canadian employers.
Employers planning to add staff in the next three months fell to 57 percent, while only 26 percent expect headcount to rise in the coming quarter. The net employment balance, the gap between firms expecting growth and those anticipating cuts, lingered at a modest plus nine, a figure barely above pandemic lows.
Despite a dip in overall vacancies, 31 percent of respondents still reported roles that were hard to fill, especially in construction, health care and social care. The data suggest that even as demand cools, skill shortages persist in key sectors.
Senior labour market economist James Cockett warned that a stagnant labour market blocks entry for first‑time jobseekers and hampers skill renewal, eroding the talent pipeline that underpins innovation. He called for "bolder measures" to restore confidence among employers, particularly for hiring younger workers.
The trade body singled out the recent increase in employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs), introduced by former Chancellor Rachel Reeves, as a key barrier. It urged the new Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, to reverse the NIC hike and scrap plans to eliminate age‑based wage caps, steps that could make entry‑level jobs more viable.
For Canadian firms, the UK's experience offers a cautionary tale. With payroll taxes and wage‑setting policies already under scrutiny in Canada, policymakers may need to weigh similar relief measures to keep hiring momentum alive, especially as the country navigates its own post‑pandemic labour adjustments.