What will markets make of the new chair of the Fed? Opinion Kevin Warsh wants to take us back to a world where the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony of the Fed Chair to Congress is effectively the moment where the Monetary Wizard of Oz steps out from behind the curtain to signal the direction for interest rates, says Helen Thomas “I don’t view the Chairman, in his testimony [...]
The world can’t keep consuming more than it produces Opinion Commodity markets have proved remarkable resilient, but there is no financial engineering solution that can replace missing barrels of oil, says Helen Thomas Commodity markets have spent the past three months performing an extraordinary balancing act. Despite one of the most significant disruptions to global energy flows in decades, the global economy has continued to [...]
Markets have entered negative gamma – buckle up Opinion Dealers are forced being to buy rallies and sell dips, increasing volatility. That should serve as a warning. Although markets currently appear calm and resilient, beneath the surface they are becoming more fragile, says Helen Thomas Markets are entering a profoundly unstable moment for the global price of risk. The supply shock emanating from the [...]
When does fish, chips and mushy peas become an unaffordable luxury? May 12, 2026 When prices rise so high and budgets get so tight, consumers adjust their habits permanently. This is looming in the energy markets as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will not be resolved any time soon, says Helen Thomas As Ryan, the owner of Harrison’s Fish and Chip shop, said to me on Friday [...]
Global equity markets are dangerously overconfident April 28, 2026 Global equity markets show a dangerous disconnect by continuing to rally – fueled by an overconfidence in policy backstops – despite the severe and persistent supply-side risks caused by the ongoing energy shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, says Helen Thomas There is a growing disconnect between the resilience of global equity [...]
The government is about to find out you can’t please the people and the bond markets April 14, 2026 In the next phase of the Iran crisis, investors will demand fiscal discipline; electorates will demand intervention. In a supply-driven stagflationary environment, it may be impossible to satisfy both, says Helen Thomas A severe physical supply shock is rippling through the global economy and unlike recent crises, this is not one policymakers can easily offset. [...]
UK bond markets are dangerously exposed March 31, 2026 Many of the forces shaping the bond market are beyond any single government’s control. The combination of higher inflation, weaker growth and increased debt issuance is driving a global repricing of sovereign bonds, says Helen Thomas The global bond market is entering an increasingly precarious phase, shaped by the early stages of what looks like [...]
The oil crisis isn’t just financial, it’s physical March 24, 2026 Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz isn’t just an economic shock, it’s harming the physical infrastructure that underpins global markets, says Helen Thomas Five years ago this week, the Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking one of the world’s key waterways for six days. Oil prices jumped six per cent as roughly [...]
Why this oil shock isn’t like the last one March 17, 2026 The new surge in oil prices will be shaped more by political responses than by monetary policy, due to a crucial shift in the economic backdrop from the tight labor markets of 2022 to the current looser conditions, says Helen Thomas This week, six major central banks meet in quick succession, including the big four: [...]
Oil shock will be felt well beyond energy markets March 10, 2026 Energy shocks rarely remain confined to energy markets. They propagate through bond markets, fiscal balances and inflation expectations, says Helen Thomas As Winston Churchill once warned: “The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given he is no longer the master of policy, but the slave of unforeseeable and [...]
