Is the yield curve signalling recession? City Talk The US “yield curve”, or part of it, has “inverted” once more. This bond market measure has been a reliable predictor of US recessions over the last four decades. With only one exception, each time the yield curve has inverted, the US economy has entered a downturn within 18 months. What is the yield curve? [...]
Treasury tremors: how does the current sell-off compare with past episodes? City Talk US Treasuries have seen the second worst start to a year and third worst quarter in 50 years. It is another eye-catching development amid what have been extreme conditions in markets and the economy over the past year. Bond markets have seen particularly unusual circumstances, with yields falling ever lower and an increasing number of [...]
Has the euro’s time come to shine? City Talk Our fixed income team thinks that after more than a decade of financial uncertainty, Europe’s fortunes – and that of the euro – could be set to change. Here’s why. Years of instability The past couple of years have brought yet more turmoil and uncertainty to the European Union. What its proponents see as a [...]
Average inflation targeting: what is it and what does it mean for investors? September 15, 2020 Late-August saw the Federal Reserve (Fed) hold its keenly-watched annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Against a backdrop of the huge global uncertainty engendered by Covid-19, the focus on the conference was sharp. Central banks have implemented further substantial policy measures to limit the damage from the Covid-19 lockdown and maintain financial stability. Nonetheless, at [...]
The death of yields in six charts October 30, 2019 There has been a relentless downward move in global bond yields since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This trend – underpinned by highly supportive central bank policies and stubbornly low inflation – has been a defining characteristic of the post-crisis world. Another defining trait of this period, and a landmark for financial markets, has been [...]
Are markets too complacent about the US economy? January 3, 2018 The status of the US as the world’s most dynamic and important single country economy remains intact, not least among investors. Its strengths are now very much reflected in financial market valuations. This is evident in stocks, with the US having been at the vanguard of a multi-year bull run, while bond yields have reached [...]
