We’ve reached “Peak Biden” – so prepare for Donald Trump to win next year’s election Dr John C Hulsman No amount of wishful thinking changes the fact that the American people blame Biden for the country's economic woes leaving Trump on track to take the White House, writes Dr John C. Hulsman
Even if Putin is ousted, it is unlikely to bring about the end of the war in Ukraine John Hulsman The Prigozhin mutiny over the weekend showed a weakened Vladimir Putin, yet it's unlikely to change the course of the war in Ukraine - which has long turned into a stalemate, writes John Hulsman
China will get old before it gets rich and a waning Beijing is a more direct threat John hulsman China faces an ageing population and a western world increasingly alive to the threat it poses; Beijing isn’t dangerous because it will outpace the US, it’s as China falls behind, Xi Jinping is more likely to lash out, writes John Hulsman.
Sanctions on Russia are on a collision course with Europe’s green ambitions October 14, 2022 These days, Europe is seen as the weak link in the developed economic world. The European stock market is underperforming its US rival, down 22 per cent year-to-date. Even risky emerging markets are doing better. Likewise, Europe’s surging inflation rates, in countries like Germany and Spain (not to mention what the UK is going through), [...]
Elizabeth II was Britain’s monarch, but she held together our bonds to America September 12, 2022 In politics and foreign policy, the personal counts for far more than those cloistered away in ivory towers of theory and philosophy can understand. It is not just grand historical forces that make the world what it is; specific people—with all their strengths and weaknesses—make history. Elizabeth II, whose long life and reign have just [...]
A global food crisis could spell a bigger catastrophe than Vladimir Putin’s war August 26, 2022 You always knew you had reached an intellectual dead end when foreign policy grandees sat around a table and recommended sanctions as an all-purpose answer to any problem. While such an initiative almost never practically worked in terms of changing the policy of the offending country, it made political sense in a Washington sort of [...]
Emmanuel Macron has cast himself as France’s defender against extremism April 26, 2022 You can tell a lot about a person by what they place in their study, their “room of one’s own”, as novelist Virginia Woolf put it. The clues of who a person is – and what they value – are often in plain sight. Newly re-elected French President Emmanuel Macron is no exception to this [...]
Ukraine is the victim of Europe’s refusal to wean itself off of Russian gas February 23, 2022 Either you master history or history masters you. Decades worth of political risk analysis can almost always be boiled down to this aphorism. In the case of Europe’s dealings with Valdimir Putin, rather than mastering history, Europe has vainly tried to take a holiday from it; we’re now watching the doleful results. First, let’s dispense [...]
On the global stage, is 2022 the happy new year we’ve been hoping for? January 6, 2022 As ever, Oscar Wilde put it best: “We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.” Optimism, the most underrated quality in our cynical age, is necessary to get through the day. Analytically, it is also often of more use than the doom and gloom that passes for the [...]
Supping with the devil: Germany must wake up about Nord Stream 2 November 19, 2021 As far back as the 14th century, Geoffrey Chaucer put it very well in political risk terms when he said in “The Squire’s Tale” of Canterbury Tales, “He who sups with the devil should have a long spoon”. In mercantilist Germany’s case—where its foreign policy is all too often only an excuse for its export-driven [...]
