This is why the City’s fintech IPO boom hasn’t happened yet
Hopes remain high for a flurry of fintech listings, in this week’s column Samuel Norman takes a look at whether this could come to fruition and what could be holding it up.
City officials have pinned a hefty portion of their hopes for a London Stock Market revival on the nation’s fintech stars.
Rachel Reeves and top Treasury officials have courted the industry’s fastest-growing start-ups in hope of opening the floodgates to a flurry of floats.
Speculation mounted last year that Monzo might fire the starting gun after it reportedly lined up investment bankers for an IPO. Telecoms giant Airtel has also caused a buzz with suggestions it was mulling a listing for its mobile money business.
And ambitions remain high that $75bn giant Revolut might change its tune on the ‘rationality’ of a London listing – though Nik Storonsky has made clear the digital bank won’t be going public until 2028 and the thinking seems to be that the best London can hope for is a dual listing with New York.
But no blockbuster move from the sector has yet occurred and as hopes quietly diminish, the London Stock Exchange is instead rolling out the red carpet to the high street.
The owners of Boots, Superdrug, Primark and Waterstones are all reported to have registered interest in a City float. It’s far beyond where expectations may have been set at the beginning of this year, even as markets were expecting some apprehension due to the volatility caused by President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive last year and then the US-Iran war this year.
But for the fintech sector particularly, there’s more direct issues than that of geopolitical turmoil.
A fresh report from Boston Consulting Group this week showed global fintech IPOs rose 50 per cent year-on-year to 42. But this was accompanied with a major “constraint” with the 30 largest global fintech IPOs of the last five years trailing the broader financial services sector by roughly 24 percentage points in annual total shareholder returns.
“That underperformance is an important reminder that the sector’s improved operating profile has not yet translated into public market confidence,” BCG analysts wrote.
It’s a sobering stat for many of the nation’s unicorns and suggests that their fast-growing pace isn’t quite enough to whet the appetite of public investors, who will want to dig into the durability of this momentum.
Fintech misses out on the PDA
Buying stock at previous payment firm floats has proved a flop – and investors have kept the receipts. The average performance of the 15 largest fintech IPOs this decade sits at a loss of around 50 per cent per cent to its stock since IPO, according to analysis by CityAM.
Leading the pack is Paysafe, which has come crashing down 93 per cent to $7.70 since its 2020 debut.
Conversely, retail investing platform Robinhood serves as a significant outlier with a near whopping 170 per cent gain. The firm has been a key beneficiary of tapping into retail investor interest and has also received tailwinds from partnerships with the US Treasury.
Of this cohort, 14 out of 15 took place on the New York Stock Exchange. The single outlier, Wise, debuted on the London Stock Exchange but has since transferred its primary listing across the Atlantic.
On the UK front, there have been some more tragic tales. CAB Payments holds the unenviable title of the “worst IPO of the year” in 2023, according to Bloomberg, and has seen its shares tumble 75 per cent since its public debut.
Does the City need a patriotic stock?
Across the UK, a handful of candidates are seen as ripe for a listing. A few weeks ago, I caught up with a fintech venture capital chief – with around $1.5bn in spend – who told me “nobody wants to be the first mover” on a listing.
The Treasury has made an effort to get the wheels turning. Earlier this year, this column gave you a snapshot of the City minister and regulators’ crunch talks with fintech unicorn bosses.
But the VC boss told me it was time to find a company that wanted to list here.
“One big deal could put the London Stock Exchange on the map… but it should be a patriotic one” they said.
Perhaps that means it’s time to look beyond the Revoluts and Starlings of the country, who find themselves tempted by a flight to New York and instead consider a company who can sing the song for the City.
BCG said the sector is set to face increasing competition for investor funding, particularly as AI develops across market sectors.
It concluded the likely result was a “selective flow” of listings as opposed to a “broad-based reopening of exit markets”.
Should it manage to get the taps turning, the City may have to settle for a steady drip-drip of a leaky fintech faucet instead of a gushing stream of new entrants to the public markets. But for now, it can find some solace in knowing the high street is at least open for business.