Wednesday 17 October 2018 8:05 am | Updated: Tuesday 21 May 2019 4:22 pm

Chomping at the bit: The race is on to be the next Tory leader

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There will be no deal this week.

It was intended, then hoped for, but a Brexit deal is now as far away as it has ever been.

The longer this goes on, the more likely it is that there will be a late capitulation, the mother-of-all-compromises by Downing Street, presented as a victory for all sides, of course.

But it won’t wash. The number of thoroughly fed-up backbench Conservative MPs is growing, and at some point there will likely be enough letters to trigger the vote of no confidence that Theresa May has managed thus far to avoid.

It is not as if she has not been given fair warning.

Boris Johnson called on her to change direction. Jacob Rees-Mogg has done the same. So has David Davis. All have tried to take the personality out of the policy – but each time May has bound the policy she dare not name even closer to her.

Chequers is now her straitjacket – but she is no Houdini.

Johnson might sometimes act the joker, but he is no fool. He knows that it would not be good for his own leadership chances to wield the sword, so it will be up to 48 Tory MPs to submit their letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister.

That number is not that far off (currently at least 44 have been submitted), and when it is reached there shall be a quick vote.

If the Prime Minister wins, she will have another year before she can be challenged again. If she loses, there will be a fresh vote to find two names to put to the membership, which might take only four days.

There are two most likely scenarios.

The first is that a temporary leader is selected, to take the UK through the Brexit endgame but retire before the next General Election. This is the scenario that could yet see David Davis become Prime Minister.

Davis has said before, on a number of occasions, that he wishes to retire at the next election – but he might be persuaded to be a temporary premier dealing with the Brexit negotiations, deal-or-no-deal, so that a clean pair of hands can be presented before 2022, looking to the new challenges and opportunities.

If this scheme gains a groundswell of support, Davis could even be anointed as leader without a party membership vote, just as May herself was. Such an outcome would also reduce the chances of Johnson becoming Prime Minister – the clamour for BoJo to channel his inner Churchill in our hour of need will diminish after Brexit is delivered.

That would open up opportunities for candidates not yet on the radar, or those that are currently outsiders – such as Priti Patel or Ruth Davidson – while killing the hopes of older, more experienced pretenders to the prize.

The alternative to the temporary Prime Minister is to choose one not just for now but for the future. In that case, we can expect the camps to divide between Leaver and Remainer candidates.

In the Remainer camp, we are likely to see Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid rise up as the main contestants, with the one showing the weakest performance likely to be bought off by the other with the promise of becoming chancellor.

Personally, I believe that Hunt would be unelectable, simply because the General Election would then centre around his stewardship of the NHS, which – fairly or unfairly – gives Labour a fighting chance and puts the Tories on the defensive. That suggests to me that Javid should make the cut.

More complex is who the Leaver candidate would be. I do not expect Rees-Mogg to enter the race, but to act as a kingmaker and give his support to the candidate best placed to deliver a clean Brexit.

That is likely to be Johnson, but Penny Mordaunt remains a strong outsider. She has an interesting personal back-story, military experience that has given her an air of leadership, and a good sense of humour – all of which makes her a colourful human being in a sea of grey suits.

Rees-Mogg could then be cast as a reforming, tax-cutting chancellor – something the British economy needs badly already, but that will become even more vital after Brexit.

This would mean a likely membership run-off between Javid and Johnson. It would be close, but Johnson is the favourite – for the simple reason that his positivity lifts peoples’ spirits.

The audacity of hope won it for Barack Obama, but the craving for optimism could win it for Boris. All of this could happen before the end of November – or not at all.