Does predictability of Ashes dilute cricket’s crown jewel for fans and sponsors?
And there it is. Another Ashes over, another series defeat for England down in Australia. Brendon McCullum’s side may have ended their winless run at the MCG in one of the two-day Tests but the overall picture remains the same.
It’s almost predictable; England head Down Under full of optimism and come back with their tails between their legs before Australia tour these shores, often drawing but unable to get a series victory.
But does that trend have wider implications for what many see as the crown jewel of cricket? MSQ Sport + Entertainment co-founder Steve Martin fears so, saying that the product has been “diluted”.
Ashes diluted?
“Organisers need to be careful with the amount of tinkering they are doing; no Ashes Test should conclude within two days because of the pitch,” he adds.
“It risks becoming gimmick-like with Cricket Australia undoubtedly losing money – and hoping for insurance cover – due to short Tests keeping fans at home.
“Messing with the crown jewels is dangerous and with Australia increasingly looking at series against India and World Cups as key assets, England needs to be careful.”
As IMG’s head of commercial rights, Chris Guinness tells CityAM, however, the series has still sparked interest. Guinness says record attendances at the MCG – an Australian all-time high of 94,000 – combined with heightened TV audiences isn’t a failure for the Ashes.
A record number, well over 300,000, of fans bought tickets on the very first day of the pre-sale last year, smashing the previous record of 111,000 in 2018. And it was the first home Ashes in an Australian TV deal that will generate over £700m for the home team’s governing body.
Crown jewel
“It’s the very fact that England have not won an Ashes series in Australia, nor Australia in England for so long that maintains and strengthens interest in such an iconic series, as fans tune in to see whether history might finally be broken,” Guinness adds.
“While in India, Test series in South Africa consistently attract huge interest precisely because India have never won there. Scarcity of success in iconic rivalries sustains intrigue, drives audiences and reinforces the long-term value of the series for partners rather than diminishing it.”
But what does this mean for sponsors? They often provide the lump sums, alongside TV revenue, that keep the game going between Test matches. Cricket Australia’s £20m deal with Westpac will help ease the pain of losing over £5m in lost ticket revenue due to the shortened Tests, as well as lost food, beverage and hospitality income.
The Sponsor editor Sean Connell says that brands pay for reach, and the reality of it is that economically the Ashes still delivers and therefore remains a premium asset.
Cricket’s premium asset
“Predictability exists across plenty of valuable sports properties,” he adds. “Formula 1 viewing figures didn’t materially decline during Max Verstappen’s dominant runs because fans still showed up for the product.
“Where predictability does have an impact is on growth. If outcomes feel inevitable, casual viewers are less likely to tune in unless a series is building towards a genuine climax. That caps upside rather than eroding existing value.
“For now, it’s broadly as-you-were commercially. The Ashes remains a premium asset, but without greater competitive tension, there’s limited headroom for significant sponsorship growth.”
A series that could have lasted 25 days was completed in 18, with a winner determined after just 11. That’s bad for business. But it is not the end of the world, with TV figures suggesting more people watch a home Ashes series than a home series against India – the other major cricketing powerhouse.
And the 40,000 Barmy Army fans down in Australia have contributed an estimated £200m to the local economy already. But Martin concludes that host nations – and governments – shouldn’t take that for granted.
“Australia haven’t won one on these shores so there will be appeal next time around,” he says. “The solution is preparation: don’t fiddle with what works for fans, which is five days of cricket.
“Fast forward four years, would you spend thousands to fly down like 40,000 did this year?”
The reality is that the draw of the Ashes and the dream of winning Down Under, as Guinness says, will undoubtedly see thousands flock Down Under in four years’ time. Alas they’ll likely return seeing their side achieve a similar result, albeit with a nice winter tan.