It will (probably) be alright: National Grid says winter blackouts are ‘unlikely’
The UK should avoid blackouts this winter, according to the National Grid, with sufficient supplies being available to meet Brits’ energy needs in the coldest months of the year.
It believes the country’s energy system can navigate a series of challenges such as a potential Russian squeeze on European gas supplies, colder temperatures, and competition for LNG from overseas to keep the lights on and gas flowing.
However, its base case scenario depends on LNG top-ups from friendly vendors such as the US and Norway, alongside electricity from Europe via interconnectors.
It has also warned of an unlikely but grave possibility of multiple three-hour power cuts this winter, as a worst-case scenario if enough supplies are not available from Europe amid a cold snap.
Such an event would mean consumers in different parts of the country being told a day in advance of three-hour blocks of time during which their power would be cut off.
While the National Grid remains confident over supplies, troubling developments such as nuclear outages in France, droughts in hydroelectric dams across Norway, and sabotage on the Nord Stream pipeline amid a reduction in Russian gas supplied into the continent reflect the volatility of the situation.
Adam Bell, head of policy at Stonehaven and former head of energy strategy at BEIS, told CityAM Government needed to commit to a nationwide energy-saving campaign to ease pressure this winter.
He said: “The very cold conditions their downside scenario involves have about a 5-10 per cent chance of happening, which is still uncomfortably high for the scale of the impact. The biggest factors are out of our control, but we should absolutely have a Government-backed energy saving campaign already underway. That we don’t is nothing short of scandalous.”
The Government has been scrambling to secure supplies this winter, working with National Grid to put five coal-fired power plants into action and rolling out a £1.5bn energy efficiency package to vulnerable households.
The National Grid will also launch a “demand flexibility service” next month.
This will encourage businesses and consumers to use power outside peak demand periods, such as early evenings on weekdays.
The approach is comparable to schemes trialled by Octopus Energy to reduce energy usage and help customers save money last winter.
Chief executive Greg Jackson said: “Of course, blackouts are unlikely but we could eliminate them altogether. Instead of cutting off whole chunks of the country if we are short of gas, we can reward people who choose to use less energy at times of peak demand.”