London local elections 2026: Who will win in Barnet?
Labour faces a battle in defending Barnet in the local elections after recent surges in council tax and a flurry of defections since 2022.
Barnet stands as a real test for both the Conservative and Labour party.
What was traditionally a safe seat for the Tories flipped red in 2022 as Labour won the borough for the first time. It marked a major blow after the Tories had controlled the borough since it was created, except for the period between 1994 to 2002 when there was no overall control.
But whether Conservatives can regain ground or Labour can hold their own both face the threat from third parties.
Labour won 41 seats in 2022 in a seven per cent swing. The turnout was 37.9 per cent.
On Friday, the balance of seats will be reset as results are expected to come at around 5pm.
Barnet hit by defections
Since then, there have been six by-elections, though all seats have been held by either of the two main parties. But that doesn’t mean there haven’t been other entries from the Greens and Reforms.
Two Tory councillors defected to Reform, one of which – Dan Thomas – would go on to become the party’s leader in Wales. His seat remains vacant.
Meanwhile, one Labour councillor went independent before joining the Greens.
The borough has a 405,050 strong population and boasts some of London’s leafiest views and brightest green belts.
The showdown in May is set to be a four-party tussle with a whole host of issues set to divide voter perspective. Barnet Labour put up taxes by 4.98 per cent in its final budget before the election.
Labour also came to power in the borough on a Nimby (Not in my back yard) agenda – pledging to protect and enhance green spaces and “stand up to developers”.
But with Reform and Green now having gained councillors through defections, the goalposts appear to have shifted.
Even the Friern Barnet ward, held by Labour council leader Barry Hawkins where he scooped up a mammoth 60 per cent vote share, faces a threat from the Greens.
Hawkins’ former co-running mate Linda Lusingu, who defected to the Greens, will be set to take the fight to Labour there.
The Tories are meanwhile hoping that voters focus on the council’s financial woes after it was one of seven London boroughs to take emergency borrowing. Taxes have also shot up in recent years though financial woes predate the 2022 elections given historic struggles to take control over social care funding.
Barnet is one of the councils that Labour will hope to not lose. Any party may be able to just edge the votes in a possible four-way split.
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