London local elections 2026: Who will win in Kingston upon Thames?
In the Lib Dems’ leafy heartlands, campaigns have included demands for an M&S. But a third runner has entered the traditional two-horse race with the Tories in Ed Davey’s own backyard – the Kingston Independent Residents Group.
Kingston upon Thames is both the geographic and the spiritual home of the Liberal Democrats.
The leafy south west London borough is represented in the House of Commons by party leader Ed Davey, who has stood as a candidate for the Kingston and Surbiton constituency since the 1990s.
The Lib Dems also control a whopping 88 per cent of the 48-strong borough council, after scooping up 47.9 per cent over the vote at the 2022 local elections. Voters will find out whether the Lib Dems remain in power in results expected to come at around 6pm on Friday 8th May.
The key issues concerning locals feel very Lib Demeseque. Local news reports are awash with stories about people opposing planning applications to build things, and one councillor even launched a campaign to get M&S to open a new branch.
But despite the fact that the Lib Dems have controlled Kingston upon Thames council for most of the last 30 years, their continued success is far from guaranteed.
Shake-up on the cards in Kingston upon Thames
The party had a majority in the council for 12 years after 2002 but were defeated in 2014 after a swing to the Conservatives. The Lib Dems returned to victory in 2018 but it would not take a landslide for the Conservatives, who won 25.4 per cent of the vote last time round, to massively increase their share of councillors from the three who won seats last time.
Council tax is a key issue and it could favour the Tories. A change in the government’s funding model means wealthy areas like Kingston stand to lose out from central funding, with the borough having to raise rates to plug the gap.
This year, council tax will go up by £120, or 4.8 per cent, for the average Band D property, one of the highest hikes in the UK and well above the London average. The pain felt by households could be enough to trigger a swing to the Conservatives, traditionally regarded as the party of lower taxes.
The traditional Lib Dem-Tory two horse race is being joined by a third runner: the Kingston Independent Residents Group, a local party which was founded in 2017.
The KIRG won 5.7 per cent of the vote in 2022, which delivered the party just one seat – but it has since managed to pick up several more after a series of byelections.
No one is predicting a KIRG takeover in 2026. But if the local party can claw a few more seats, it might be just enough to deprive either the Lib Dems or the Tories from securing an overall majority, which would make KIRG a key powerbroker in the council.
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