Manufacturing output plummets at fastest pace since pandemic
Manufacturing output in the three months to November dropped at the fastest pace since the pandemic, a new survey has found.
Researchers at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said that the balance reading for output volumes across industry was at the lowest level since the quarterly period to August 2020.
The weighted balance reading stood at -30 per cent, compared to -16 per cent in the three months to November.
Output over the next three months is also set to decline at the same pace, the survey also indicated.
The CBI’s industrial trends survey makes for devastating reading across Westminster as the Labour government has made growing the UK economy and turning the country into a “clean energy superpower” were central missions.
The survey is especially bleak for the manufacturing sector given the tax burden is expected to become heavier after next week’s Budget.
CBI analysts also said that total order books and export orders stood well below long-run averages.
Stocks of finished goods were also above “adequate” levels, falling on figures from October. The data may provide extra evidence of firms front-loading investment and production in the first half of the year as owners looked to avoid suffering from tariff hits.
Manufacturing sector ‘needs certainty’
In some more positive news for economists, expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November and stood in line with long-run averages.
Weak growth highlighted in the data, coupled with signs of inflation pressures easing, adds to prospects of the Bank of England voting for an interest rate cut in December.
But CBI economist Ben Jones said the data sends a warning to the Chancellor ahead of a difficult Budget.
Jones said respondents flagged the uncertainty around upcoming fiscal measures as a key reason for a slowdown in purchases and investment.
“Manufacturers face a challenging end to the year,” Jones said.
“With the Budget now just days away, the Chancellor must provide much needed certainty and back the government’s growth mission rhetoric with pro-business policies.”
There is little in the way of Budget rumours that could spark hopes of a rebound for the UK’s manufacturing sector.
Official data in recent months on production levels has been equally weak.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said last week production fell by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of the year, dropping by as much as two per cent over the course of September alone.
Part of the fall has been attributed to a freeze in production as a result of the cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover.
But further taxes are likely hamper businesses and depress growth over the coming months, business chiefs have warned.