Pound soars against the dollar as Remain takes 18-point lead in new opinion poll

By: Jake Cordell

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The pound has shot up against the dollar after a new opinion poll showed the Remain side could be soaring ahead as the EU referendum campaign enters its final five weeks.

In a new Ipsos Mori poll for the Evening Standard, released this afternoon, 55 per cent of voters said they were in favour of staying in the EU, while just 37 per cent said they intend to vote to leave.

That gives the In camp a massive 18-point lead with 36 days to go until the vote.

Sterling rose by more than one cent against the dollar immediately after the results came out, taking it back above the crucial $1.45 mark. The pound was down at $1.4407 following unemployment and wage data out earlier this morning but leapt to $1.4532 after the survey results.

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Opinion polls in the run-up to the referendum have been highly volatile, and pollsters' reputations aren't what they used to be following the 2015 general election disaster. However, investors clearly still pay them attention.

Telephone polls – which the Ipsos Mori one was – have also consistently shown the Remain side to have a bigger lead in the campaign, while online surveys put the sides much closer, casting doubt over which ones are the most accurate barometers of how the UK will vote.

Following Barack Obama's intervention in the campaign last month, the pound jumped to above $1.47 as investors believed that remain had the upper hand. The dollar also came under recent pressure following weak economic data which seemed to pushed the chances of an interest rate rise into the distance.

Today's leap, therefore, is even more impressive, as it comes against a backdrop of increasing commentary that minutes set to be released by the US Federal Reserve later this evening could show ratesetters are considering a hike when they meet next month.