What do Conservatives really think about climate change?
The public is clear that it wants action on climate change, but don’t want to pay more for it – and Conservatives are particularly opposed to higher taxes. The future of the centre-right depends on resolving this tension, says Simon Clarke
What do the public think about the environment and the UK’s commitment to climate action? This is the question Onward has been asking together with our partners at More in Common – and the answers highlight the exceptionally tricky path politicians have to walk on this issue.
Because people are clear that they care about climate change. Over two-thirds of the voters we asked said that it is either very or somewhat important to them that the government makes tackling climate change a priority. And there would be clear risks associated with disengaging from the issue. Onward, with our focus on the future of the centre-right, drilled down into the key voter group who voted Conservative in 2017 or 2019, but not in 2024. We found those who indicated they would be prepared to return to the party the soonest care more about climate change than those who said they might return later, or that they never would.
But the public also don’t want to pay much more for climate action. We found that if tackling climate change required higher taxes in the short term, but led to savings in the future, a plurality (35 per cent) of all voters would not accept any increase in their annual taxation. This was followed by nearly a quarter being willing to accept only a £1-£10 increase, while 16 per cent would accept £10-£100. Support fell drastically for higher levels of increased taxes, with only two per cent and one per cent being willing to accept a £500-£1,000 or over £1,000 increase respectively.
Climate cakeism
The public’s appetite for a certain amount of “cakeism” on this issue is therefore fully apparent. They want to address climate change, but at a time when living standards have been so battered for so long, they understandably shy away from rising costs to them personally.
This dilemma is particularly acute for the Conservative Party, whose voters displayed significantly lower willingness to pay more than either Labour or Liberal Democrat supporters. The stark reality is that this tension cannot be ducked and will need to be addressed by Kemi Badenoch in the months ahead.
Our polling indicates some potential ways forward. Conservative voters and leaners want energy to be produced as cheaply as possible, increased energy security and the creation of new jobs. These voters recognise the role that new clean energy technologies such as tidal, nuclear and solar can play in achieving these priorities. And there is genuine hope about what new technologies may enable.
Those looking for a pragmatic and attractive way forward can look to what Conservative Mayor Ben Houchen has done in the Tees Valley, where net zero isn’t about Ed Miliband-style hair-shirtism. It’s about thousands of new jobs and billions of inward investment, whether in Korean giant Seah’s new factory to produce the monopiles for offshore wind farms or in BP’s pioneering new gas-fired power station with carbon capture, utilisation and storage facilities under the North Sea.
Additionally, in emphasising cost-awareness and a leading role for the private sector in delivering the energy transition, the Conservatives would also be chiming with the broader public scepticism that Labour’s climate policies will be funded by increased taxes or irresponsible borrowing. This sentiment is not just prevalent amongst Conservatives; a plurality of voters (43 per cent) think this too. Our focus groups identified particular doubts about Labour’s new GB Energy.
But resolving voters’ twin demands of more climate progress at little to no cost will not be easy. Kemi Badenoch has demanded “honesty” from our politicians. The unmistakeable conclusion to be drawn from our new polling is that we also will need more of it from the British public.
Simon Clarke is the Director of Onward, the centre-right thinktank. Onward polled 3000 people together with More in Common for its new report Political Climate, published this week