What do Labour-Reform switchers want? It’s not what you think
Voters who have left Labour for Reform are more pro-European than the general public with nearly three quarters wanting a much closer relationship with the EU, finds Praful Nargund
Tough rhetoric and tighter rules from the Prime Minister are all designed to neutralise one of the most volatile issues in British politics: immigration. But behind the headlines, another migration decision is quietly taking shape. In the shadow of a trade deal with the US, the government is preparing for its first UK-EU summit in years. Youth mobility will be on the table and has huge economic benefits. But, given the wars fought over free movement, the question becomes: how can this be done wisely?
The cost-of-living crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the re-election of Donald Trump is pushing voters towards Europe. The government has just agreed a trade deal with the US – but in reality, the public’s goodwill towards the US has not simply dissipated, it has reverted back towards the EU. The Good Growth Foundation’s new report reveals that Britons are more likely to view Donald Trump as a bigger threat to national security than terrorist groups – second only to Russia. In a world of shifting alliances, it’s a striking signal. As one Conservative-Labour swing voter said in focus groups: “I don’t think, really, we have as much of a special relationship with America as what we think.”
Britons are more likely to view Donald Trump as a bigger threat to national security than terrorist groups – second only to Russia
The public are looking for good relationships with good people. That does not mean that they want to rejoin the EU. But they do want a closer relationship. And this is particularly true for the voters Labour needs, and perhaps fears losing, most. Our report shows that Labour-Reform switchers – voters who backed Labour in 2024 but are now flirting with Reform – are more pro-European than the general public. Nearly three-quarters want either to rejoin the EU (35 per cent) or pursue a closer relationship but not rejoin (39 per cent), compared to 33 per cent and 34 per cent respectively for all Britons.
The emotional inheritance of Brexit
These voters matter. They may well be the difference between majority and minority government, between power and opposition. But the path forward is narrow. The same public that sees the economic benefits of closer ties with the EU also carries the emotional inheritance of Brexit. They still want control. They still care about sovereignty. And they still worry about Britain being treated unfairly in any deal.
It is not necessarily the principle of people coming to the UK that voters resist. It is the perceived impact on an already struggling system. When we tested the public’s red lines for a deal with the EU, reinstating freedom of movement came seventh. What people are concerned about is allowing EU citizens access to public services and benefits (31 per cent said this was non-negotiable, coming second in the poll).
That’s why a Youth Mobility Scheme could work. Properly designed, such a scheme could offer the economic gains of closer EU ties without violating the public’s core worries on immigration control. Even with capped participation, limited access to public funds and surcharges, a youth mobility scheme could bring in up to £1bn in fiscal benefit each year. Much of it would be additional headroom for Rachel Reeves, giving more freedom to invest in public services and alleviate pressures from rising bills.
Labour has a rare opportunity to reframe the debate – moving beyond the binary of open versus closed borders to a smarter, more confident approach that balances economic gain with public consent. Voters want control, but they also want stability. A bold, credible plan to engage with the EU on our terms could win back their trust.
Praful Nargund is director of the Good Growth Foundation