Labour’s miserable mood music comes with its own risks
The last time a Labour government replaced an unpopular Tory administration it did so to the sound of Things Can Only Get Better, by D:Ream.
Now, 27 years later, Keir Starmer is changing the tune with a warning that “things are going to get worse.”
This stark contrast will be set out in a speech today by the Prime Minister, in which he will accuse the Conservatives of leaving behind nothing but “rubble and ruin”.
Starmer’s argument is that the damage inflicted on the country has been so severe that not only will it take a decade to repair our social and economic fabric but that deeply unpopular decisions will have to be taken in order to pull the country up off its knees.
There are two problems with Labour’s approach. Firstly, it’s not entirely true and secondly, it could backfire.
Yes, the public finances are in a poor state, but this might have something to do with the fact that the government picked up much of the country’s wage bill for 18 months before finding the cash to cover a large chunk of our energy bills, too.
State expenditure during the pandemic and subsequent energy price shock received cross-party support and came with a price tag of around £400bn – but nobody likes to talk about it.
The idea that this level of exceptional state spending could take place without multi-year consequences is laughable, and yet it doesn’t feature in our national debate at all.
As for the wider economy, GDP is growing (more than had been forecast), inflation is heading back towards the target level, unemployment is low and wages are rising.
The picture is far from perfect, but rubble and ruin? Not quite. And while it makes political sense for Labour to justify their looming tax rises by describing the country as an economic basket case, they should tread carefully.
Starmer and his Chancellor Rachel Reeves say that economic growth is Labour’s defining mission, but they risk leaving out a key ingredient: optimism.
There will be no growth without a return to confidence and a surge in investment, but Labour’s miserable mood music risks undermining both.