Analysis: What does Trump’s victory mean for the UK?
Donald Trump’s political resurgence poses important questions for the UK and the wider world.
After securing the requisite 270 electoral college votes, Trump is on course to return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, in January.
And from his dealings with global leaders, the UK-US special relationship, to military spending on wars, trade policy and climate change, this result means a recalibration on many levels.
Trade impact
The UK’s Labour government is focused on delivering economic growth in a bid to shore up their support, boost GDP and fund public services.
But with Trump suggesting all goods coming into the US could face a 10 per cent tariff – with Chinese imports hit with a 60 per cent tax, could this have an impact on the UK?
Think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the move could see rising inflation and higher interest rates in Britain, potentially lowering UK growth.
Business and trade secretary Jonathan Reynolds previously said the UK was “modelling every potential outcome” of Trump’s campaign pledges, and that officials were “extremely well prepared”.
Discussing contingency plans, EU sources also told Politico they plan to “hit back fast and we will hit back hard” in any trade war with the US.
‘Special relationship’
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, foreign secretary David Lammy, and Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch have shared their congratulations with Trump.
The UK government and officials have been working behind the scenes to build links with the Trump campaign and Republican Party and to prepare for a potential return to office.
Starmer’s statement focused on the “historic election victory” and said that he “looks forward to working with you in the years ahead”.
He noted the closeness of the UK and US as allies, and said that “we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise”.
The PM also cited growth, security, innovation and technology as areas the two countries can prioritise working together on.
Khan and Lammy
But London mayor Sadiq Khan, who had an ongoing row with Trump during his first term, said that “many Londoners will be anxious” following the result.
He spoke about the importance of “progressive values”, but added: “The lesson of today is that progress is not inevitable.”
There are also concerns about previous comments by Lammy, who has vehemently criticised Trump in the past, including calling him a “racist and KKK/neo-Nazi sympathiser” in 2017 and a “tyrant in a toupee” a year later.
Trump’s campaign also filed a legal complaint about Labour activists supporting Kamala Harris amid the final weeks of the election campaign.
Bronwen Maddox, Chatham House foreign affairs think tank director, said she thinks Trump will be “magnanimous” in victory with the UK, but said there could be a “fly in the ointment”.
Foreign affairs
On Ukraine, there are widespread concerns about continued American support in the face of Russian aggression, with Trump unhappy about US taxes funding European security.
The UK has pledged to continue supporting Ukraine, and the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said this morning “we rely on continued strong bipartisan support in the US”.
It’s thought Trump could create pressure on Ukraine to agree to “some kind of deal”, Maddox said, which some fear risks emboldening President Vladimir Putin.
Climate
Trump recently referred to climate change as “one of the great scams of all time”, while Hurricane Helene battered Florida.
It’s thought he would be keen to roll back Biden-era climate progress, such as electric vehicle mandates, which aim to increase the number of EVs sold.
He also wants to increase drilling and natural gas production, including in wildlife regions in Alaska.
Some campaigners have already suggested his victory is “a disaster” for the planet, and urged the UK to “stand firm as climate leaders… to maintain momentum on the global transition to a clean economy”.