The Philippines’ pivot to China is just the start: America is sleepwalking into disaster in tinder box Asia October 31, 2016 Give him his due. At the very least, Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte is never dull. Beyond calling Barack Obama names that would naturally lead in another setting to a brawl behind the schoolyard, the canny if vulgar Duterte is surprisingly effective at doing what smaller powers are supposed to do in a multipolar setting: playing [...]
Why everyone called Brexit wrong: Analysts have become too close to the elites they’re meant to analyse October 26, 2016 I have long held heretical views about political risk analysis, which cluster around what I call the “plumber’s test”. However bejeweled or slick at marketing a political risk firm may be, what matters in the end is that they are analytically correct. Just as I don’t invite back my local plumber if he fails to [...]
Saudi Arabia’s gormless cheerleaders have failed to spot the looming crisis October 24, 2016 “Some people without brains do an awful lot of talking.” – The Wizard of Oz Conventional political risk wisdom is falsely sanguine about yet another looming crisis. The House of Saud, bullish proponents blithely declaim without giving the matter too much thought beyond simplistic headlines, has proven surprisingly supple and enduring. Yet in reality, Saudi [...]
We’re winning the war against Isis in Iraq but the peace has already been lost October 17, 2016 It is the saddest, and easiest, prediction to make in global political risk analysis today: we will “win” military victory in Iraq, only to lose the peace. For the dire, ghostly, maddening conclusion must be that the West and its Middle Eastern allies are incapable of learning from history. The press salivates about the imminent retaking [...]
How decadent elites lost control of politics the world over October 10, 2016 To outsiders, Colombia’s recent referendum on ending its 53-year war with the Stalinist revolutionaries of the Farc seemed the ultimate no-brainer. Putting a merciful halt to a conflict that has killed a horrendous 220,000 souls would seem to require little thought. Yet when earnest President Juan Manuel Santos put his peace deal to a nationwide [...]
Deutsche Bank’s woes signal the fall of the House of Merkel October 3, 2016 “And the deep and dank tarn closed silently over the fragments of the House of Usher.” – Edgar Allan Poe With mighty Deutsche Bank, the largest lender in Germany and symbol of the country’s economic might, in dire straits, Germans are belatedly waking up to the nightmarish reality that the supposedly masterly inactivity of their wildly [...]
Clinton and Trump’s dismal debate performances laid bare America’s perilous divisions September 27, 2016 “I have a son who’s 10, he’s so good with computers.” – Donald Trump, when asked about US cybersecurity weaknesses (The American Republic is) “under siege by a moron.” – Bruce Springsteen, when asked about Donald Trump Well, it was just as weird as had been anticipated. The estimated 100m Americans who tuned into the [...]
Syria must burn itself out: It is time for the West to do nothing September 26, 2016 (The best policy is) to float lazily downstream, occasionally putting out a diplomatic boathook to avoid collisions. Lord Salisbury, 1877 In one of the least shocking policy outcomes of the year, the US-Russian brokered ceasefire in Syria did not last the week. Speaking as a longstanding sceptic of intervention there, being right analytically gives me [...]
Reality has finally caught up with Germany’s disastrous Chancellor Merkel September 19, 2016 Merkeln (German verb): To dither, do nothing or fail to take decisions I have always thought the German stereotype for humourlessness is slightly unfair. Exhibit A for my contrary view is that a new verb, Merkeln, has recently entered the German language. Any culture that can coin a word to describe the haplessness of its [...]
Italy is just three plausible steps away from crashing out of the Eurozone September 12, 2016 “Never ask a question if you don’t know the answer” – Common courtroom adage "Plausible threat” is a term of art in political risk analysis, meaning the peril being discussed can come about through entirely possible events. Martians disrupting France’s upcoming presidential election would not be a plausible threat (fun though it would be). On the [...]
