America would gain nothing from cosying up to Putin’s declining Russia February 27, 2017 It has been three years since Russia’s stunning annexation of Crimea. It is the worst kept secret in Washington that the new administration of Donald Trump would like to turn the page on the US-Russian hostility that followed, in a transactional effort to remake US foreign policy. At the heart of Trump’s Jacksonian nationalism is his [...]
Founding Fathers 1, populists 0: The US constitution is taming Trump February 20, 2017 “Through all the gloom I can see rays of ravishing light and glory.” – John Adams to his wife Abigail, July 3, 1776, after Congress voted for Independence “Good people don’t go into government.” – Donald Trump Donald Trump’s first month in office ended with a bizarre, rambling press conference that made incompetence into a [...]
Blame France’s incompetent and corrupt elite for the rise of Marine Le Pen February 13, 2017 “Apres moi, le deluge.” (After me comes the flood) – Louis XV Say what you will, Francois Fillon, the disgraced former frontrunner in the upcoming French presidential elections, is no Professor Moriarty. As the investigative journal Canard Enchaine reports, Fillon paid his wife Penelope over €800,000 for work as a political assistant it is unclear whether [...]
War with North Korea over its nuclear ambitions is now a very real possibility February 6, 2017 Such is the concern about the mad, cruel, despotic regime of Kim Jong-Un of North Korea that an internet falsehood recently spread that sounded just crazy enough to be true. According to the apocryphal tale, the untested Kim – chafing under the patronising tutelage of his uncle, Jang Song-thaek – decided he had had enough. [...]
Putin isn’t dangerous because Russia is strong – but because it’s so weak January 30, 2017 “Some people without brains do an awful lot of talking.” – L Frank Baum, The Wizard of Oz As a child, I remember being fascinated by the populist allegory The Wizard of Oz. My favourite part of the story – sure to cause me to burst out laughing even when I knew what was coming [...]
Forget Russia: Trump’s China trade war risks breaking Asia’s fragile peace January 23, 2017 “I see myself as an instrument of the Almighty and go on my way, regardless of transient opinions and views.” – Kaiser Wilhelm II, 1910 While he was diabolically poor at follow-through, former President Barack Obama has the makings of a first-rate political risk analyst. Early on in his term, Obama keenly saw that Asia [...]
Theresa May must be even bolder to make Global Britain a free-trading success January 17, 2017 “Fear not, we are of the nature of the lion.” – Queen Elizabeth I There was just enough in Theresa May’s speech today to reassure those who campaigned to leave the EU. Crucially, she made clear that we are definitely leaving the Single Market and taking control of our borders. She suggested only a great [...]
Germany is not the answer to any serious strategic question January 16, 2017 Given the nervous breakdown of America, epitomised by the election of know-nothing Donald Trump as President, it is altogether understandable and human that elites are desperately casting about for a new champion of western stability. There are precious few other candidates for the job so, largely by the process of elimination, analysts (particularly on the [...]
The chess player and his needy friend: What Vladimir Putin really wants from Donald Trump January 9, 2017 Chess players are a particularly rare bird in the political risk ecosystem. The only major aim of such chess playing – and it is certainly an important one – is the acquisition and retention of political power over the long term. Chess players’ dogged, patient, rational, long-term pursuit of coherent strategic, political and geopolitical ends [...]
The year of the vampire: 2017 is when political risk bites back January 3, 2017 “I have never met a vampire personally, but I don’t know what might happen tomorrow.” – Bela Lugosi Perhaps the greatest single indicator that the West no longer rules the world is its constituent nations’ signal inability to solve any of their many festering crises. Gormless, wildly overrated Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany epitomises this [...]
