Five political risk predictions for a new era January 7, 2020 As Jules Verne’s unmatchable adventure Around the World in Eighty Days so eloquently put it: “Anything one man can imagine, other men can make real.” Fresh off my firm’s victorious analysis of both Brexit and the outcome of December’s British General Election, we sincerely hope that the new year continues to affirm for us Verne’s [...]
The brain-dead era of Angela Merkel is limping to a finish December 9, 2019 The always interesting French President Emmanuel Macron got it precisely wrong in November when he airily derided Nato — the most successful alliance in the history of the world — as experiencing “brain death”. Brazening it out, Macron doubled down, defending his remark at the Nato summit of last week. As I never tire of [...]
Don’t panic, China is nowhere close to overtaking America November 25, 2019 There has been far too much doom-mongering of late about America’s structural position in the world. While there is no doubt that the US is in relative decline, it is as if the commentariat does not really understand what these words actually mean, focusing only on the “decline” part of the phrase. So for all [...]
The Wizard of Oz Democratic primary portends another victory for Donald Trump November 11, 2019 The starting gun may have yet to sound in the 2020 Democratic presidential contest, but with the Iowa caucus only 90 days away, there is already a surprising amount that is clearly in focus. First, the very crowded Democratic field has already been decisively winnowed. According the 7 November Real Clear Politics average of polls, [...]
Syria is the climax in the long battle over the soul of American foreign policy October 28, 2019 In defying the American foreign policy establishment, I once wrote a book that cost me my job. In 2006, in response to the looming debacle in Iraq, the British thinker Anatol Lieven and I wrote Ethical Realism. It was a broadside castigating the brain-dead, pro-interventionist intellectual sameness of the US foreign policy establishment, and the [...]
In defence of my friend Dominic Cummings October 14, 2019 Everyone of a certain age who worked in New York or Washington has a 9/11 story; mine concerns Dominic Cummings. It was sometime early in the afternoon of the unforgettable, nightmarish day. Three planes had already slammed into the World Trade Centre Buildings and the Pentagon, inflicting their awful havoc. A fourth plane had been [...]
A plague on both Trump’s sordid White House and the self-righteous Democrats September 30, 2019 Shakespeare, as ever, said it best. As the eloquent Mercutio lays dying at the hands of Tybalt in Romeo and Juliet, his last thoughts are of the unreasoning duel between the two aristocratic families of Verona, the Montagues and the Capulets. Aptly summing up the poisonous atmosphere which directly led to his death, Mercutio damns [...]
Peering through the Brexit haze: What we know so far September 16, 2019 One of my favourite intellectual exercises that we use in my political risk firm is what we call “seeing through the fog”. When a long-standing geopolitical topic seems to resemble nothing so much as King Minos’ labyrinth, senior staff and I repair to a good wine bar and spend an afternoon not talking about all [...]
Britain must try to sail beyond the Brexit debate in order to find the stars September 2, 2019 Sadly, many of the great quotations in history are simply not accurate. One of my favourite apocryphal quotes is (wrongly) credited to Sir Francis Drake, supposedly written just before the intrepid explorer set off on the Golden Hind on his dazzling circumnavigation of the globe. Drake is supposed to have said: “Disturb us, Lord, when [...]
As the rest of the world drifts toward protectionism, can Africa show the way to free trade? August 19, 2019 The world is presently witnessing a curious pattern. Even as those who have benefited most from free trade (the US, the EU, China) are foolishly turning towards the siren call of protectionism, the rest of the world, especially Africa, has emerged as liberal internationalism’s unlikely champion. Last month, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari made headlines by [...]
