China has miscalculated — India will be the big winner of this new world order June 29, 2020 My friend, the Indian diplomat and politician Shashi Tharoor, once wisely said: “Everything in India is recycled, even dreams.” And now in our new era, India’s rightful pride in its fabulous history — and perennial fervent desire to return to the top table in global politics — is about to at last be realised. Delhi [...]
With the rest of the world distracted, China is on the march across Asia June 22, 2020 There are iron-clad geopolitical rules as to how the world works, edicts no less true because they are unknown by the vast majority of people. The vastly underrated Nicholas J. Spykman, the foremost US strategic theoretician of the twentieth century, was a primary articulator of these secret runes. As Spykman postulated, the underlying rules to [...]
With China’s mask off, the last days of Hong Kong are upon us June 15, 2020 There is something terrifying about watching freedom die. As a historian, whether contemplating the end of Athens, the last days of the Roman Republic, or the horrors of the French Revolution devouring its children, as a well-wisher to liberty I always feel an ineffable sadness as freedom is snuffed out. And that is precisely what [...]
Putting out the fire in America June 6, 2020 Following almost two weeks of nationwide riots in the US in response to the sickening murder of George Floyd by a brutal Minneapolis police officer, this week I could in good conscience write of nothing else. Now is the time for the bravery to alienate both “sides”. Now is the time for truth-telling if the [...]
Hulsman: Britain is forging a new path in foreign policy June 1, 2020 It is my favourite Churchill quote, even though the great man may not actually have said it (though he certainly felt it): “Americans will always do the right thing—after exhausting all the alternatives.” As someone who has lived the Special Relationship, the quip perfectly captures Washington’s habitual initial analytical short-sightedness, as well as the dogged [...]
Hulsman: The world through China’s eyes May 25, 2020 Modern China begins with Deng Xiaoping, the most important man of the twentieth century westerners know next to nothing about. Deng’s story makes up the final chapter of my most recent book, To Dare More Boldly: The Audacious Story Of Political Risk; in it I chart his magical act of political alchemy. Surveying the wreckage [...]
What we know about the new Cold War May 18, 2020 The American astronomer, Carl Sagan, put it well: ‘Where we have strong emotions, we’re liable to fool ourselves.’ To deal with this very debilitating—if very human—impediment, before making any definitive political risk statements, I try to blow the emotional cobwebs away by playing an invaluable game called ‘What We Know.’ ‘What We Know’ is an [...]
Connecting the dots in Europe reveals a continent in decline May 11, 2020 My colleagues at my political risk firm are forced to endure my earlier incarnation as a college professor, as I cannot help but try to instruct them. One of my favourite lectures concerns the absolutely necessary need for a world-class political risk analyst to connect the dots, to clearly link together geopolitical data points that [...]
The oil war risks becoming a three-way suicide pact May 4, 2020 I have long been a devotee of the films of the great Sergio Leone, especially his Spaghetti Westerns. On a laughably threadbare budget, the great director made a virtue of his technical limitations, creating nothing less than a whole new look and feel in filmmaking. The climaxes of Leone films are always a treat, perhaps [...]
China is fighting a Cold War. Has the West realised it yet? April 27, 2020 Beneath the endless conferences and diplomatic niceties, at root international diplomacy is always the handmaiden of power politics. As the 16th century English diplomat, Sir Henry Wotten, so aptly put it, an ambassador can be defined as ‘an honest man sent to lie abroad for the good of his country.’ But the eternal contest for [...]
