Will the Labour party survive its conference?
The left, just like the right, is a broad but unhappy church – will its internal rifts reach breaking point at Labour’s upcoming conference in Liverpool? Asks Helen Thomas
This Sunday, Liverpool plays host to the Labour Party conference, where the party’s competing wings will jostle under the harsh glare of the government spotlight. Just as the right wing of the UK political system has fractured under pressure, Labour too is showing fault lines, with ideological tectonic plates shifting beneath its feet. The rumble of division is growing louder, as internal internecine warfare over what it means to be “Labour” has broken out into a messy public battle now that fiscal constraints are forcing tough political decisions. The upcoming Budget could well be the flashpoint that finally cracks the party wide open.
Before that set-piece event, the conference will provide an opportunity for the competing factions to mass their ranks. So many MPs, advisers, think tanks, donors and party activists will be crammed into the sweaty dockside bars of Liverpool that it will be almost impossible to escape the pressure to pick a side. This is just how the enemies of the Prime Minister want it. Despite the large majority gained at the last election, there is a group of Labour supporters who were never too happy with Keir Starmer commanding the helm. They hope to change the direction of the party, preferably with someone else in charge, by fomenting discontent. After a change to the latest Labour Party rule book, if 20 per cent of MPs propose and then win a confidence vote in an alternative candidate, Starmer will be gone. It’s much easier to round up the requisite 80 MPs if they’re all in the same place at the same time.
After a change to the latest Labour Party rule book, if 20 per cent of MPs propose and then win a confidence vote in an alternative candidate, Starmer will be gone. It’s much easier to round up the requisite 80 MPs if they’re all in the same place at the same time
The agitators just need to provoke an argument. Expect to see demands for conference votes on contentious issues – although thanks to the Byzantine Labour rule book, these demands may not be granted. An attempt to bring a vote on scrapping the two child benefit cap has been refused by the Labour Conference Arrangements Committee. In a sign of the unholy alliances forming between Starmer’s enemies now that they smell blood in the water, a joint statement was issued by ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham’s Mainstream faction and the left-wing Corbynista Momentum group warning this refusal was “yet another example of the hyper-factional style of party management causing Labour to sink in the polls and members to leave in droves”.
Whilst the soft left and hard left break bread, the actual left have already left. Jeremy Corbyn has attempted to start a whole new party. It might be called Your Party, it might not. As is so often the case with hyper-democratic collectives, the quasi-management has already fallen out, with supposed co-leader Zarah Sultana claiming she had “been subjected to what can only be described as a sexist boys’ club” before threatening legal action (and then retracting the threat “for the sake of the party”). Wannabe comrades are none the wiser over whether they can join the party, or who runs it, or how.
Greens supreme?
Those searching for a home on the left might instead turn to the Green Party who now have a new leader under Zack Polanski. Following his election, the Greens have increased their membership by over 10 per cent, including 1,400 new additions in the wake of the Sultana/Corbyn spat. Polanski started out his political life as a Liberal Democrat before switching to the Greens eight years ago. He will be hoping he takes voters on a similar journey.
Never before have British voters had so many parties to choose from. The fluidity of the electorate and decline of the big two-and-a-half parties now makes it possible for new and fringe parties not just to have the chance to gain representation but to actually form a government. After all, if a general election were to be held tomorrow, our electoral system means that Reform, a party only formed under that brand four years ago, stands a good chance of gaining a majority. Just look at the landslide won by the Labour Party on just 34 per cent of the vote.
This happened despite a number of Labour MPs finding their usual “safe” majorities greatly reduced. Take leadership hopeful Wes Streeting, who only retained his Ilford North seat by 528 votes. Even Shabana Mahmood in Birmingham Ladywood saw her huge majority collapse from over 28,000 to 3,421. All across the country, voters flocked to alternatives, or simply stayed at home, leaving MPs of all varieties feeling rather more vulnerable.
Electorates have lost faith in the old parties, let down first by the financial crisis, then by the cost of living crisis. They are not returning to the centre; they believe it let them down. They seek salvation from parties at the extremes. This is not just the case in the UK. France is currently ungovernable with its parliament irrevocably split between left and right. Even Japan, usually a one party state, has a rare minority government and is yet again recycling through another Prime Minister.
The Labour Party conference will serve as a reminder that the left, like the right, is a broad but unhappy church. Keir Starmer has a majority but not a mandate for the action that financial markets require to be taken. His party will not survive the upcoming earthquake intact.
Helen Thomas is founder and CEO of Blonde Money